The Monte Carlo Fallacy

 Savoring simple daily pleasures 

I came across this concept in book I was reading poolside this past week (Before "real life" kicked back in)  I was so taken with the idea- it was almost as if a light bulb had gone off- an A-Ha moment indeed. 

The Monte Carlo Fallacy

One infamous evening in 1913, gamblers lost Millions of Francs in a casino in Monte Carlo, on the French Riviera. 

At the roulette table the ball kept landing on black repeatedly, causing a crowd to gather, placing increasingly higher bets - convinced the streak was about to end.  26 consecutive blacks we played before finally landing on red. 

The Belief that the probability of future events changes, based on past events. 

This is a mistake we can all relate to to some degree. How often have we reflected on something and presumed that based on the previous outcomes we can predict and forecast the result. 

We are fully capable of breaking the mold, tricking the system, and re-directing our paths. 

Just because something has happened a certain way a handful of times (or more) previously, doesn't mean it will continue to do so. We need to be open to the possibility of change, and to let the universe, God, or whatever higher power, being, or force you believe in, weave its mysteries for the good. 

We are so quick to judge, to be pessimistic, to be self-depreciative, to assume the worst- based on past experiences. Where in reality - mostly these things have an equal chance to turn to good- to become a positive and rewarding experience. 

This may be a huge success in finally overcoming a barrier such as public speaking, a first date, conversing in another language and being fully understood,  combating and controlling a fear or phobia, or producing perfectly pillowy pizza dough, publishing a first book, or running a marathon. 

Just because these are things you've not previously achieved, that you've failed at before- you have manifested them in your mind as unachievable hurdles; I urge you to re-look at them. Think of Monte Carlo, and allow yourself to look forward without looking to the past for answers. 

Undoubtedly there will be times when the black keeps showing up again and again, metaphorically, but at some point, the probability goes out the window, and the red will turn up. It might be the next turn, it might be another 100. But we need to keep trying and be open to the possibility, believe that it will happen, when the time is right, when the stars align, and when we are ready to receive, we will.

When you flip a coin there is a 50/50 chance of it being heads. Those odds don't change no matter how many times you flip it.  

The mind is a very powerful tool indeed. I'll leave it there for this post, I just felt drawn to highlighting this little anecdote.